China's Military Power Projection - a View from India
Latest development
China is in the news again due to satellite images that show the deployment of China’s new Jin-class nuclear submarine at Sanya on Hainan Island in the South China Sea. The Jin-class nuclear submarine is capable of carrying 12 nuclear-tipped JL-2 (also called asDF-31) ballistic missiles that have a range of 8000 km. Another concern is that the underground submarine facility could hide the movement of submarines from spy satellites, thus providing a strategic advantage to China during war. China has managed to develop massive tunnel entrances that are approximately 60ft high. According to military experts, these tunnels are capable of hiding 20 nuclear submarines from spy satellites. The submarine is based in Hainan, which will give the submarines access to very deep water exceeding 5000 meters within a few miles, making them even harder to detect.
Implications of China’s nuclear submarine
This development has international implications. Naval Chief Admiral Suresh Mehta said: “It is not the nuclear submarine bases that matter, we are concerned about the number of nuclear submarines that are being built in our neighborhood.” On the other hand, Christian Le Mière, editor of Jane’s Intelligence Review, said: “This is a challenge to any hegemonic power, particularly the US which still remains dominant in the region.” The US believes that China is preparing to deter the US from any kind of intervention in Taiwan as the US would not like to risk its own aircraft carriers to torpedoes or submarine-launched ballistic missiles for the sake of Taiwan. The US will not risk its own military people for the sake of a country where it does not have any direct strategic interests. This development is a crucial element that can affect the three access points of the Indian Ocean/South China Sea region, via the straits of Singapore, Malacca, Sunda and Lombok, through which all international shipping must continue to pass without any major risk. India is alarmed by this development because China’s nuclear submarine is barely 1200 nautical miles from the Malacca Strait in which India has direct economic and strategic interests. Also, naval domination would permit Chinese submarines and surface units to foray to the Indian Ocean. This is of great concern to India because of the Andaman Islands, which are only 2000 km away. The Malacca Strait is a narrow stretch of water between Peninsular Malaysia and the Indonesian Island of Sumatra. The Malacca Strait is important for China, India and the US for economic reasons. 40 percent of India’s trade passes through the Malacca Strait. Therefore, it is very important for India to safeguard the security and safety of ships passing through this body of water. Vijay Sakuja, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation said that mercantile traffic transiting the Malacca Strait passes close to Indian areas of maritime interest and therefore any development in this area has security implications for India. Similarly, China is also heavily dependent on the Malacca Strait because 60 percent of its crude oil imports pass through it. Oil from the Persian Gulf and Africa is shipped to the People’s Republic of China via the Malacca or Lombok/Makkasar Straits. Over the past few years, Chinese leaders have come to view the straits, especially the Malacca Strait, as a strategic vulnerability. Therefore, both India and China seek strategic domination in the Strait of Malacca. Presence of a Chinese nuclear submarine near the Strait of Malacca is of great concern to India’s economic interests because it would give China the capability to cut off the Malacca Strait and South China Sea for commercial traffic in the event of any crisis between India and China. Chinese advanced missiles and space capabilities threat This is only one part of the story. China is working on all three sectors of defense: Land, air and navy. Chinese IRBMs and MRBMs could reach the most distant corners of India. Chinese missiles like DF-2, DF-3, DF-4 and possibly DF-5 are deployed in Tibet, Datong and Kunming. These missiles could target India’s land easily. The opening of Tibet’s railways also poses a threat to India because it enables China to easily transport shorter range missiles to the Indian boarder should there be a conflict. China is busy in missile modernization as a response to the US Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) program. The country is also working to replace its liquid fuel ballistic missiles with solid fuel ones. Solid fuel ballistic missiles have greater advantage over liquid fuel missiles as they are more accurate and easy and quick to launch. It has carried out tests of advanced versions of DF-31 and DF-31A, which have a range of approximately 12 000km. China has MIRVs that have the capability to hold 3 warheads each. In addition, China is producing short-range missiles that are comparable to Agni and is deploying them in Tibet, facing India. China considers this missile to be a conventional one whereas India treats it as a nuclear one. As a result, the conventional balance is shifting in favor of China. Similarly, China’s missile and nuclear modernization program will give it a survivable second strike capability which could pose a threat to the US. China is also trying to develop countermeasure technology so as to penetrate and defeat the US BMD program. Pakistan as a trusted alliance of China could also benefit from Chinese space technology and this has strategic implications for India. China and Pakistan are developing strategies that are dangerous for the Indian region. Apart from missiles and nuclear help to Pakistan, China has also participated with Pakistan in building the Gwadar seaport. The Gwadar project is important to China because of its implications on energy imports. However, India views this as an attempt by China and Pakistan to encircle it from all sides. China’s massive military buildup is combined with a continued claim on India’s territory, that is, Arunchal Pradesh and Sikkim. Does India have minimum credible deterrence against China? It has become a necessity for India to strengthen its deterrence and to divert scarce economic resources to missile and nuclear development. With the revelation of China secret nuclear submarine development, the Indian government announced that it would test the Agni III in May 2008. Agni III is the only strategic missile that could target the main cities of China. It was successfully tested on April 12, 2007. It has a range of more than 3000 km and can carry nuclear warheads of 1.5 tons. However, this missile is not yet inducted into India’s defense forces. India is also years away from developing and inducting nuclear submarines and sea-based ballistic missiles. At present, India has two programs related to nuclear submarines: The Akula class submarines from Russia and the indigenous program of Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV). After the Kargil War, former Prime Minister Sh Vajpayee held talks with the Russian government about acquiring Akula class submarines on lease. A deal was signed between Russia and India in 2004 and Russia agreed to provide Akula on lease. It was decided that India would finance the construction of an unfinished Russian nuclear submarine and then lease it for 10 years. The deal to acquire an Akula II on lease from Russia was signed in 2007. It was agreed that the Indian Navy would commission the INS Chakra, a 12 000-ton Akula II class nuclear powered attack submarine from the far eastern Russian port of Vladivostok. But apprehensions about the quality of the submarines to be leased from Russia do remain. This shows that India lacks the capacity to deal with future Chinese threats. If India wants to avoid this strategic gap with China it has to take some drastic steps to revamp the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) to develop its nuclear submarines and ballistic missile programs quickly. India has already taken 15 years for the ATV program, and it is still not ready. It’s only with the development of nuclear submarines and sea-based missiles that India could achieve deterrence against China. To reinforce the argument, paragraph 3.1 of India’s Draft Nuclear Doctrine states that “Indian nuclear forces will be effective, enduring, diverse, flexible and responsive to the requirements in accordance with the concept of credible minimum deterrence. These forces will be based on triad of aircrafts, mobile land based missiles and sea-based assets.” Therefore, it is very important for India to develop nuclear submarines and sea-based ballistic missiles. It is high time for India to pay attention to maritime security which has been neglected for years. However, in my opinion, India, with its present limited resources will not be able to match the threat from China. Conclusion Clearly China is threatening the global military balance. On the international front, Russia has a soft corner for China. China is gaining in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, including Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. China is well aware that it should weaken the interest of the US in Taiwan where it might be successful by making itself militarily very strong. India is technologically inferior to China and the US is technologically superior to China. Recommendations To conclude, the US, India and Japan have to combine their joint efforts not only on the military front but also at the diplomatic and economic levels in the region to counterbalance the Chinese immediate real threat. Therefore, it will be in the interest of the US, India and Japan, being the largest democratic states with the same ideologies, to improve their relations not only on the diplomatic front but also create an atmosphere of economic and military cooperation.
"Another concern is that this underground submarine facility could hide the movement of submarines from the spy satellites"
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