"The Kosovo-Albanian potential for unrest was demonstrated in the murderous attacks in March 2004"

Having visited the German troops in Kosovo back in the year 2000, I left Kosovo with the perception that a multi-ethnic solution of a future Kosovo was totally unrealistic.

Having seen the living conditions of the Serbian minority, the on-going “ethnic cleansing” – Serbs fleeing to the North – and the dimension of mutual systematic destruction of the infrastructure and having heard about the mutual torture and killings, I was unable to imagine that the dream of a democratic and multi-ethnic community would come true within the next decades.

I do not want to address the history, ethnic-religious and geopolitical aspects we covered in previous newsletters (Kosovo - The Key Security Issue in the Balkans, If Kosovo Fails, the West Fails). Instead, I would like to focus on the issue of the future status of Kosovo.

Standards before status

This was the official philosophy of the UN, NATO and the EU based upon UN Resolution 1244. It was the disbelief that both issues could be improved sequentially: First the standards and then the status. It proved to be the wrong approach because both issues are the two sides of the same medal “Kosovo” which was a kind of UN protectorate after the war ended in June 1999 with the agreement signed on June 9 in Kumanovo, Macedonia..

It would be wrong to say that the various activities of the UN, NATO and EU – including the Balkan Contact Group(Germany, France, Italy, Russia, the UK and the US) – were without any success. But the fragility of the situation was proven by the massive Albanian attacks against the Serb minority in March 2004.

In October 2005, the UN Secretary General appointed the former Finnish President Marti Ahtisaari as a special UN envoy to start negotiations with Belgrade and Pristina about the future status of Kosovo. Marti Ahtisaari’s attempt to reach an agreement between Serbia and Kosovo through negotiations failed after 13 months. In May 2007, Marti Ahtisaari handed his proposal about the future status of Kosovo over to the UN Secretary General. In essence, the Secretary General advocates an independent Kosovo under international control – militarily and politically.

The ball is now in the corner of the UN Security Council.

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