Theresa May’s Big Gamble - Is Jeremy Corbyn Missing His Chance?
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Theresa May, decided to call an early parliament election, which might have several purposes. May inherited the government and parliament from former Prime Minister David Cameron who resigned after the EU referendum in 2016, which was a huge loss for Cameron. May replaced Cameron, and she has been quite fierce with ‘Hard Brexit’ negotiations. Therefore, May needs a new beginning with her own parliament if she is going to win the next parliament election.
Governments have always an upper hand against opposition parties when they decide to go to early elections. May’s intentions are quite clear. She sees The Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, The Scottish National Party and The Green Party as weak political forces, which can be easily overrun. The Conservative Party succeeded in the local elections, and this gives confidence to the party because other parties do not face a severe threat. Hence, an ideal time to arrange early elections.
Cameron was also confident when he decided to arrange the EU referendum but the election went against him as a person. His own party members decided to rock the boat but also his political arrivals from competing parties. May might face a similar kind of situation if pro-European forces decide to go active in the coming elections. May has actually given an opportunity for the The Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party and Green Party to against her hard Brexit line. These parties have the capability to become “counter revolutionaries” concerning European affairs if they enhance fiercely an anti-Brexit campaign.
These parties have a real chance to end the United Kingdom’s Brexit process if they decide to utilise the anti-Brexit momentum, which is going on around the country. However, this dissatisfaction is not utilised hard enough, which is quite peculiar. Campaigns can be quickly launched and tactics can be easily changed because the internet, social media channels and digital technologies provide efficient and affordable campaign tools. This is the reason why May is playing with high stakes, like Cameron did with The UK Independence Party in order to stop them from increasing their support among conservative voters, therefore, he decided to go with the EU referendum.
This also raises the question. Is May gambling intentionally because she was the supporter of the Bremain campaign? Does she want to lose the upcoming election on purpose because she might not want to continue with the Brexit process? Therefore, Bremain supporters have the chance to vote tactically, hence, to vote for parties and candidates, which are supporting Britain’s EU membership.
However, there is a one major problem. The leading opposition Labour Party does not have momentum among voters. It is not promoting on the behalf of Bremain strongly enough. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has his momentum but he is not using it, which is strange. Corbyn was also heavily criticised during the Bremain campaign because he was too passive. Some critics even questioned his pro-European stance. Some Labour candidates are campaigning for Bremain, like MP Chuka Umunna, who is a rising star in The Labour Party.
Liberal leader Tim Farron is not utilising this fruitful situation either, nor his party, which is known for its pro-European stance. Liberal Democrats are known of their soft campaigns in a bad way. Now they have the chance to shine with an active campaign but they are not taking advantage.
The Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon is supporting Bremain, and her party seems to succeed in polls. Sturgeon is well known of her sharp and active campaigns, which might be a game changer but she needs other opposition parties alongside her if she wants to end the Brexit process.
As a Bremain coalition these parties could overrun The Conservative Party if they can lure pro-European voters. Opposition parties still have time but no one is taking real leadership. But there are several candidates who could take the leadership, and turn the election situation upside down.
However, these parliament elections are not raising deep emotions, which is a good situation for pro-European parties because Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson where able to mobilise passive and angry voters, which are not on the move. Also, a vast number of Brexit-voters have changed their mind because they feel betrayed by the Brexit campaign. Still, opposition parties are missing their big momentum to win the next parliament elections if they are not going to tackle the Bremain issue hard enough. Former Prime Minister Tony Blair understands this situation, and therefore he is supporting the Bremain but only a MP candidate could take the real leadership. Corbyn is missing his chance to make political history as a modern time Winston Churchill?
However, the brutal terrorist attack, done by a ISIS terrorist cell in Manchester might change the focus point in the upcoming elections. ISIS wants to create fear, confuse, isolate and divide nations from within. Prime Minister Theresa May raised the threat level to the highest “critical” because there is a danger of imminent threats. A wise move. Still, the Brexit question might not receive required attention, and time is running out.