Libya: Action Plan needed
Military efforts are now directed against Col. Gaddafi by 11 states including the U.S., France, Great Britain as well as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates under UN Resolution 1973 which was a sensation, as it made possible all measures necessary for the protection of the civilian population.
China and Russia abstained out of consideration for the decision of the Arab League – and their oil interests. The government in Tripoli has changed course and become nervous, now that it is under attack by the most powerful coalition on earth. It cannot win.
The UN resolution was a remarkable success for France and a disgrace for German Foreign Minister Westerwelle, who chose not to vote with the USA, the UK, France and Lebanon for a no-fly zone, and instead chose to abstain. Thereby, Germany has become isolated after torpedoing a good idea of joint EU foreign policy, and is even applauded by Col. Gaddafi. Beirut and Tehran supported the no-fly zone but not Berlin – here, the strategies seems to have turned upside down.
What should the USA, the EU and progressive forces do now in the next phase of the conflict ? What does an action plan for Libya 2011 look like?
An active structuring of North African policy is decisive, not merely running behind events or holding things at a distance and doing nothing. “We have to shape and not only adapt to reality", repeated my mentor and Pentagon strategist Dr. Fritz Kraemer again and again. That is not a lesson for the French President or his brilliant intellectual master-mind Bernard-Henri Lévy but rather the German Foreign Minister.
Here are several ideas for an action plan for Libya 2011:
1. A no-fly zone and air-strikes are two of many necessary ideas and actions that should be developed and implemented in a “Master Plan Libya 2011" to assemble a larger picture of progress. We need a new double strategy of power and reconciliation, hard and soft factors of peacemaking including a new democratic fundament and economic growth.
2. EU Member States should follow France’s lead and now recognize the the Interim Transitional National Council of Libya in Benghazi diplomatically, but only under the condition that they clearly and irrevocably recognize the UN Charta, namely the protection of human rights, religious freedom and freedom of the press in an official declaration. Where is this declaration? Who will demand it? Neither France nor any other EU state can afford - as in 1979 with the naive support of the Iranian revolution - to support the birth of another dictatorship out of the ruin of a fading dictator. Have a look into the website and founding declaration of the Interim Transitional National Council of Libya which does not name political ideas or the UN Charta and human rights.
3. The rebels’ leaders should form a parliamentary assembly. The benchmark for this should be the free “Eesti Komitee” of my friend Tunne Kelam from 1990 in which, in a counter-parliament to the Supreme Soviet of Estonia, the smallest republic of the USSR, the boundaries were set for real reform and the Estonian democracy. Kelam now sits in the European Parliament and on the advisory board of our World Security Network Foundation. At that time I led his International Advisory Board. The EU should support this committee. As many signatures as possible should be gathered for an independent Libya. In Estonia more than 700.000 Estonians signed out of a population of only 1.4 million.
4. The EU should create a “EU-Libya Future Fund” with an initial amount of Euro 100 million. Libya, a rich country, should contribute one billion Euro. A development plan must create jobs and prosperity for all through a social market economy.
5. The billions of dollars in frozen assets must flow into transparent development funds. Until now all Libyan deposits have been concealed and are untraceable.
6. A constitutional convention should establish a free democratic order, oriented towards Europe and the UN Charta and the protection of human rights and dignity.
7. A “Libyan Truth and Reconciliation Commission” should be created following the example of South Africa, which should investigate all incidents of the past and bring together opponents around one table. Reconciliation with Gaddafi supporters must also be included in the political manifesto in order to avoid a civil war. Most medium level current civil servants must, for the time being, remain in their posts in order to avoid chaos like in Iraq. All contracts with foreign businesses must remain in force.
8. American special aircrafts should transmit radio programs for a free Libya as was done in Iraq and Afghanistan.
9. The UN should invite Libyan representatives to permanent negotiations with various working groups.
10. As with Egypt, it is critical that the generals and security forces are drawn to the side of the reformers – this led to the transition in the USSR, GDR and eastern European nations. Different tribes should be integrated into the peace process.
11. And what about Gaddafi and his family clan? The international community will have to bite in the sour apple offering him an exit in half-dignity.
Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi has also gone too far. Within a matter of days he ruined his reputation as a potential modern successor, in spite of the fact that he is consulted along each step by his New York PR agency. The days of self-aggrandizing rulers are over.
Libya has billions of dollars in oil and gas income. However, one sees very little when it comes to investment in the country.
It seems that over decades someone must have hidden away many billions of dollars.
If Gaddafi and his family reveal all of their wealth leaving it to the state, they should be permitted to retain an “allowance” of USD 100 to 300 million.
Now the Libyan people must be very careful that other persons do not claim the rest of the national wealth for themselves. Libya should immediately create a transparent state fund model like that realized by Singapore as a best practice example.